While some people are predicting doom and gloom for the new year, I rather look to the rarer traits, the good ones. 2011 is ending and will soon be a distant memory. I hear sighs of relief from some. What in the world could we look forward to in the upcoming year?
In my post "2011 and other years....." I predicted 'moderate' growth in the economy in the US. Well I may have been over optimistic using that word. I seemed to have been barely any growth. 2011 prove to be a year of contraries. There was growth for some sectors and there was some downturns for others. This resulted in barely any growth at all. There was activity. And it was the activity in the markets I sensed. Activity will grow in this coming year. Hopefully the activity will translate in some significant growth in the markets. The potential is there. New companies have emerged. Older corporations have emerged from bankruptcy reorganizations. So I'm looking forward to increased activity in the financial sector.
Fledgling democracies in North Africa and other parts have an uphill climb in 2012. Factions will conflict. Societies mettle will be tested. I hope these countries will stand up to the challenge. The challenge is to put down all weapons and pick up the pen and computers and start the democratic process. They should stay in the democratic frey for years to come. Strong emotions are at work here. Unifying the different factions under issues will be the key to success. I wish them good luck.
Geo-economics seem to have their work cut out for them. Individual countries in Europe need to continue to stabilize themselves. Africa has great potential to create new business in 2012. Some African countries have been profitable in the last year. Peace and the fight against violence should help increase the economy. Russia seems murky. They need to deal with their problems before they can have an increased influence on the world, economically speaking. China on the other hand has said it will use its money to invest and create a positive force in the world. I don't doubt the Chinese's sincerity. Business people in China really want to succeed in a peaceful world.
On the geo-political side of things, I've been disturbed by reports of activity between China and the West. I fear war mongering is in the air. It would be a hard time to have another large war like World War II. China is setup now with lots of money. This can only mean that their military will be trying to get to that money and make new things, have a bigger army, and have a warlike attitude to the rest of the world. This is of a great concern. I hope we do not have a war. I would argue that a war with China would hinder the economic advances China has made and will also jeopardize the economic future of the world. Russia is still murky on the geo-politics. They now have internal protesting to the election. I predict hard times for Russia, and a hard struggle. North Korea is something people are concerned with. I have to say I don't see much concern. I do see some reform from the new leader. I also see pretty much that North Korea will go in the same direction as it has before, isolation. The North Korean people are suffering, and I don't see a change in that. Iran is also a concern. I don't see anything new for them in 2012 though. International dialogues with Iran will continue as they have been. I think Iran will stall for time.
In space, India has been progressing by launching its own satellites increasingly. NASA is in an internal battle over two factions, the cost-plus model and the new commercial services model to launch from Earth. Congress also has a hard time to wrap their brains around the new model. I do see the the commercial companies will make new strides in 2012 even with government stalls. Other space programs will continue but with revenue fights. Money seems to be sparse for space these days.
I will say that in 2012, the world will....continue as it always has. I don't see the end of the world in 2012. I choose to look at it as a renewed era of potential and advances. We just came out of an era of stalls, and declines. Rebuilding the world is the name of the game now.
Well, that's it. I do look forward to the positive things in 2012. Be careful out there, its still a jungle. Have a good year.
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